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Viewing cable 05PARIS4760, PS FIRST SECRETARY FRANCOIS HOLLANDE UNDERWHELMS
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
05PARIS4760 | 2005-07-08 08:08 | 2010-12-01 12:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Paris |
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
080857Z Jul 05
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 004760
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL FR
SUBJECT: PS FIRST SECRETARY FRANCOIS HOLLANDE UNDERWHELMS
AMBASSADORIAL GROUP
Classified By: DCM Alex Wolff for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
¶1. (C) Summary: Francois Hollande, First Secretary of
France's deeply fragmented Socialist Party (PS), on June 30
presented his take on a variety of French, EU and foreign
policy issues to an informal "Circle of Ambassadors" group,
attended by Charge. Hollande's analysis impressed
participants as sound and insightful. His lack of a clear
program of action to contend with French socio-economic
difficulties, however, left his audience asking if he is
capable of projecting himself as a candidate with a clear
message and a winning program. On display were both
Hollande's questionable viability as a candidate in the 2007
elections and the PS's lack of unity and coherent vision.
End Summary.
EU Constitution and the PS
--------------------------
¶2. (SBU) France's Socialist Party (PS) hosted, for the first
time, a "Circle of Ambassadors" group to hear party First
Secretary Francois Hollande give an overview of key issues
SIPDIS
and answer participants' questions. While his general
presentation was unremarkable, Hollande proved more
insightful in answering questions. Addressing the failed EU
Constitutional referendum, Hollande noted there were a number
of reasons for the 'no' outcome, including the need for a
collective effort earlier in the campaign to better explain
the content of the treaty. Part of the problem, Hollande
reasoned, was in the prevailing view of the EU; whereas it
had previously been seen as a protective institution, issues
such as the Bolkestein proposal to create a single services
market and "liberal" (free-market) labor laws have sparked
fear and concern. Hollande also saw rising nationalism as a
factor. Rather than seeing the EU as the guarantor of peace
and stability, citizens are asking what is in it for them.
Hollande expressed his disappointment in the lack of
discipline within the PS in support of the Constitution
adding that just as lack of party discipline had had
consequences for the future of Europe, it should also have
consequences for those party members who broke ranks. The
split within the Socialists over the EU Constitution was a
key factor in its defeat, according to Hollande. The divide
legitimized both the PS 'yes' and 'no' camps, as supporters
of either could point to a PS leader championing their cause.
Hollande took a swipe at PS no-camp leader Laurent Fabius,
stating that his support of the 'no' was not based on the
merits of the Constitution, but on "ulterior motives" -- that
is, Fabius's ambition to make himself the PS candidate in the
2007 presidential election. Hollande announced that the PS
would decide on its candidate for 2007 at the party congress
in mid-November, and added that party members who,
afterwards, presented themselves as an alternative candidate
would be expelled from the party.
Future of the EU
----------------
3.. (SBU) All elections within Europe have an EU dimension,
according to Hollande, who added that domestic and EU policy
were becoming difficult to separate. Hollande noted that,
over the medium-to-long term, politics in European countries
tend towards regular alternation in power between center-left
and center-right -- which should currently favor the
center-left, as many European countries (among them France,
the Netherlands, and Italy) are currently led by the
center-right. Hollande said that the center-left parties of
Europe needed to work together and develop a coordinated,
common approach. Hollande also remarked that Europe was
facing a crisis of confidence and identity. The French and
Dutch rejections of the EU Constitution laid bare this crisis
in Europe and would have the effect of prolonging it. First
among the concerns was the issue of EU borders. An EU-wide
debate was necessary to discuss how big the EU should become
and what its purpose should be. These comments struck many
as intimating re-consideration by the PS of its position
favoring Turkey's inclusion in the EU. Hollande also noted
that the EU shouldn't wait for any new constitutional
initiatives to secure several essential goals, such as a
common foreign minister and voting weights and other
decision-making changes.
French Politics and 2007 Presidential Race
------------------------------------------
¶4. (SBU) Hollande asserted that victory in the presidential
election in 2007 would go to the party that provides
solutions to the problems of France. If the Socialists can't
engender confidence, he stated, they risk resorting to
populism and the "us against them" mentality that showed
itself during the EU Constitutional debate in the guise of
the Polish plumber. Hollande stated that reforms in France
were difficult to effect and often the result of legislation
imposed by the majority party rather than compromise among
stakeholders -- a system Hollande characterized as
ineffective. Hollande cited job creation as a most urgent
challenge facing France, and pointed out that 70 percent of
jobs in France are short term or of a fixed duration. (Note.
This is largely a result of the French employment laws that
make it inordinately difficult to fire full-time employees.
End Note.) Hollande observed that the vaunted "French social
model" (often invoked by President Chirac) was a recent idea,
and added that he did not know what it meant. The PS, he
stated, speaks of an EU social model, but the current French
government touts a model no one wants to follow.
¶5. (SBU) Hollande made several predictions regarding the
2007 presidential elections, notably that Chirac would not be
a candidate. Sarkozy would leave the government before the
elections, likely under protest so he could criticize Chirac
and Villepin. The Socialists would reunify before 2007,
unless an opposition candidate rose to challenge the official
flag-bearer. Hollande foresaw the UMP candidate making the
second round of elections, with the PS candidate representing
the left. Ultimately, Hollande reiterated, the winner would
be the candidate offering the most credible promise of
change. (Paradoxically, his presentation inspired no such
impression.)
Asia and Africa
---------------
¶6. (SBU) Describing Asia as a dynamic, competitive, and
important region, Hollande similarly noted that it was
causing economic unease in France. It was not constructive
to simply tell people to work harder, he said. Hollande
stated that regulations were needed to protect economic
interests, but was careful to underline that he did not
support protectionism, just the guarantee that all parties
should play by the same rules. Touching briefly on Africa,
Hollande remarked that France had a unique responsibility to
the continent. The EU is seen as the panacea to African
problems and aid to Africa should be increased, he added.
Comment
-------
¶7. (C) Hollande is right that the next President of France
is likely to be the candidate who offers the most credible
promise of change. Hollande, however, seems unlikely to be
that candidate. Hollande does not project as a leader
implementing a clear program of action. He has often been
criticized for his diffidence and lack of "political punch."
True to that image, he did not demonstrate the confidence or
talent for galvanizing others to action that voters look for
in a candidate. His comments on issues focused on general
diagnoses, not concrete remedies. His vision for the party
made the Socialists appear adrift. Interestingly, every
positive example of Socialist leadership that Hollande
outlined came under Jospin, which raises the question as to
whether Hollande is preparing Jospin's return, even if
unconsciously. End Comment.
STAPLETON